Featured Projects
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Monetary Policy
Inflation · Rates
Yield Curve Inversions as Recession Predictors: A Post-QE Reassessment
Re-examines the predictive power of the 2s10s spread following unconventional monetary policy, with focus on the 2022–24 inversion.
Fiscal Policy · EM
EM · Debt
Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets Under a Strong Dollar Regime
Modelling external debt dynamics across 18 emerging economies under USD appreciation and commodity price shocks.
Labour Markets
US · Labour
The Beveridge Curve After Covid: Structural Shift or Cyclical Distortion?
Decomposing the outward shift in the US Beveridge curve using vacancy and unemployment micro-data post-pandemic.
Equity Research
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| European Banks: Rate Tailwinds Fading, Asset Quality in Focus | Financials | Europe | Feb 2025 | |
| US Energy Majors: Capital Allocation Discipline vs. Transition Risk | Energy | US | Dec 2024 | |
| EM Consumer Staples: A Relative Value Screen | Cons. Staples | EM | Oct 2024 |
Macro Updates
Full archive →
March 2025
Fed on hold, but the labour market is sending mixed signals
Payrolls surprised to the upside but hours worked and wage growth tell a more cautious story about the underlying trend.
February 2025
European inflation: the last mile problem resurfaces
Services inflation remains sticky as energy base effects fade and wage growth stays elevated across the eurozone.
January 2025
2025 outlook: five macro themes worth watching
From fiscal dominance in the US to EM divergence — the themes most likely to define markets in the year ahead.